NCCI AIS 2026

A Labor Market That Held Up by Almost Standing Still: Reading Stephen Cooper’s 2026 Economy Update

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A hand spins one plate while another drifts loose and a third cracks. The image illustrates the fragile 2025 economy behind AIS 2026's workers' comp update.

Stephen Cooper opened his AIS 2026 economy update with an uncomfortable truth: 2025 saw the slowest U.S. job growth outside a recession in more than two decades, but workers’ comp kept turning. Senior Solutions Advisor Ryan Smith reads what Cooper’s data means for premium, frequency, and severity heading into 2026.

The Economy and Workers’ Comp: Why Macro Trends Hit Closer to Home Than You Think

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Conceptual collage of a hand gripping rising blue and purple arrows as a dark arrow snaps downward and a pink arrow falls, illustrating economic uncertainty.

Workers’ comp is priced off payroll and shaped by employment patterns. When the economy shifts, carriers feel it — sometimes immediately, sometimes with a lag. Here’s how to read macro trends before they hit your book.