Stephen Cooper opened his AIS 2026 economy update with an uncomfortable truth: 2025 saw the slowest U.S. job growth outside a recession in more than two decades, but workers’ comp kept turning. Senior Solutions Advisor Ryan Smith reads what Cooper’s data means for premium, frequency, and severity heading into 2026.
NCCI’s 2025 State of the Line marked the twelfth consecutive year of underwriting gains for workers’ compensation, but the underlying math tightened. Combined ratios rose five points. Accident year crossed 100. Reserve redundancy slipped to $14 billion. Senior Solutions Advisor Ryan Smith reads what these shifts mean for 2026 planning.
Ryan Smith just got back from NCCI’s Annual Issues Symposium in Orlando. The twelfth straight year of underwriting profitability for workers’ compensation held. The rooms in Orlando sounded different about it. True’s Amy Sliger walks through five threads from AIS 2026 worth pulling on as carriers head into 2026.
Workers’ comp is priced off payroll and shaped by employment patterns. When the economy shifts, carriers feel it — sometimes immediately, sometimes with a lag. Here’s how to read macro trends before they hit your book.